According to the most recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey, Trump and Biden are tied — but a conviction might change that because independent voters are not interested in backing Trump if he is convicted.
Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Joe Biden are planning a rematch in the 2024 election. Biden’s Supporters Lag Behind Trump’s in Enthusiasm.
All Democrats (97%), as well as three-quarters of independents, believe Trump has done something wrong. Notably, two-thirds of Republicans who liked Trump indicated they would vote for him even if he were convicted of a crime. That is a sizable majority, but it could be a setback for his reelection.
Typically, at this point in a presidential election cycle, hypothetical contests are meaningless since voters have not had a chance to get to know the many primary contenders. However, Trump remains by far the most popular Republican primary contender. 74% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents approve of him. Only Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is viewed favorably by most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and he trails Trump by a wide margin (58%).
According to the most recent NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey, most Americans believe Trump has done something wrong. Given the numerous investigations into Trump, three-quarters of Americans feel he has done something illegal, while 26% say he has done something unethical but not criminal.
Meanwhile, House Republicans are attempting to impeach the current Democratic president (despite the lack of evidence of illegal action).
A plurality, albeit a small one, believes Biden committed wrongdoing in connection with his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings: 38% feel the president did anything unlawful, while 25% believe he did something unethical but not illegal.
Despite the two guys being in quite different legal circumstances. Trump has been indicted four times at the state and federal levels, whereas Biden has faced no legal action in connection with his son’s business operations. Meanwhile, the House Republicans have failed to offer evidence of any crimes committed by Biden.
Unsurprisingly, these poll results vary by party:
- Nine in ten Republicans, as well as seven in ten independents, believe Biden has done something improper in connection with his son’s business transactions.
- In contrast, one in every three Democrats believes the same thing.
- Half of Republicans agree.
Notably, two-thirds of Republicans who liked Trump indicated they would vote for him even if he were convicted of a crime. That is a sizable majority, but it could be a setback for his reelection.
The reaction of independents to a conviction may also significantly reduce Trump’s chances of reelection. Half of all adults prefer Trump to Biden, while 42% prefer Biden. However, only one-third of independents who support Trump say they would vote for him if he were convicted of a crime.
Biden and Trump are in a dead heat
In a potential 2024 battle, Biden and Trump are neck and neck, with 49% of registered voters backing Biden and 47% supporting Trump. This has remained almost unchanged since the August NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll. This is consistent with the RealClearPolitics polling average, which has shown a close race between the two men for months.
Typically, at this point in a presidential election cycle, hypothetical contests are meaningless since voters have not had a chance to get to know the many primary contenders.
And, until the GOP (Grand Old Party) nominates a candidate, any polling battle between Biden and Trump remains speculative.
However, Trump remains by far the most popular Republican primary contender. 74% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents approve of him. Only Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is viewed favorably by most Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, and he trails Trump by a wide margin (58%).
Trump’s supporters are more enthusiastic than Biden’s
Both candidates are popular within their respective parties: almost three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would be pleased with Biden as their party’s nominee, while three-quarters of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents would be satisfied with Trump.
However, Trump’s supporters are more enthusiastic, with 43% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents saying they would be “very satisfied” with him as their nominee. In comparison, 30% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they would be “very satisfied” if Biden were at the top of the ticket.
In addition, 1 in 4 of their party’s voters are dissatisfied with both candidates.
One of those voters is Republican Art Frasca of Waterford, Michigan. Despite previously voting for Trump, he does not want Trump to be president again. Not because he dislikes the former president; rather, he believes Trump’s nature makes him an unsuccessful president.
“I think Trump, if he had a Congress that would work with him, things might get done,” he said. “I believe people will be prejudiced against him simply because of his personality.” And I don’t believe we can afford it.”
Julie Tyndall of Pink Hill, North Carolina, considers herself “left-leaning” — she admires Bernie Sanders — and voted for Biden in 2020, but she is not enthusiastic about doing so again.
“I feel like Biden is just too old to be running again,” she stated. “I wouldn’t have expected my great-grandfather to be president, because he started slipping, and it seems like Biden’s slipping too.”
Tyndall’s dissatisfaction with both political parties is, however, much deeper.
“They never tend to do anything that’s actually beneficial to the country,” she stated. “They just keep fighting each other, and that’s all they care about.”
Trump and Biden both have net-negative favorability ratings, but Trump’s is higher. Biden’s is negative 7 percentage points (44% of registered voters like him, 51% dislike him), whereas Trump’s is negative 19 percentage points (38% like him, 57% dislike him).
Furthermore, approximately one-quarter (26%) of registered voters want neither Biden nor Trump to be re-elected president in 2024.
The spoiler impact for third-party candidates is unclear
Given the proportion of Americans who loathe both Biden and Trump, a third-party candidacy has sparked considerable interest. However, the survey suggests that even with third-party candidates, a Biden-Trump matchup would be competitive.
When given the option of voting for Biden, Trump, a hypothetical Green Party candidate, a generic Libertarian candidate, or another generic third-party candidate, 20% of registered voters chose someone else or were uncertain. Meanwhile, Biden received 40% of registered voters, compared to 39% for Trump.
Julie Tyndall of Pink Hill, North Carolina, considers herself “left-leaning” — she admires Bernie Sanders — and voted for Biden in 2020, but she is not enthusiastic about doing so again.
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